A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
